Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been a whirlwind of a week for U.S. gamers, starting with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, complete with its impressive lineup of games. However, the excitement quickly turned to concern when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The roller coaster didn't stop there; this morning, Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders for the system as they assess the impact of the sudden and sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on numerous nations.

We've previously explored why the Nintendo Switch 2 carries such a high price and the potential impact of these new tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. Now, the pressing question on everyone's mind is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even pricier when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on evidence and data. I've already done this twice this week. However, this time, every analyst I spoke with was stumped. Some guessed that Nintendo might raise prices, while others believed they might not. Yet, all emphasized the unprecedented chaos of the current situation, making any prediction nearly impossible.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke with had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The panel was split on whether Nintendo would raise prices. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it might be too late for Nintendo to increase prices after their announcement. However, the delay has changed his perspective, suggesting Nintendo may have no choice but to raise prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," he said. "I hope I am wrong but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing: "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also believes that game prices, including those from Nintendo, are likely to increase. However, he stresses the unpredictability of the situation: "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers." He explained that Nintendo likely had certain tariff assumptions when setting the original price, but the actual tariffs announced were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to."

Piscatella added that the US might join other regions historically subjected to higher game prices due to these tariffs, noting the chaotic nature of their announcement.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will rise, although he believes software might be less affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, regarding hardware, he suggests that companies like Nintendo are unlikely to absorb additional costs, which could lead to higher retail prices for consumers.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks."

Van Dreunen added that while Nintendo historically aims for a launch price around $400, adjusted for inflation, the current price likely reflects an anticipation of economic challenges. "Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower."

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees, suggesting that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if prices rise further. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place."

Harding-Rolls noted that the delay in pre-orders gives Nintendo time to seek a solution. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait-and-see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season."

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments to IGN about Nintendo announcing cheaper digital editions of Nintendo Switch 2 games in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from a spokesperson at the Entertainment Software Association. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott says. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports."

He emphasized the logistical impossibility of relocating entire supply chains to the US under current laws and timelines. "We are living in … there’s no other word for it .. unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)."

Elliott criticized the tariffs for their negative impact on US consumers during a cost-of-living crisis, arguing that they harm both gamers and the gaming industry. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business."

He concluded by highlighting the economic theory of comparative advantage, asserting that tariffs fly in the face of these principles and ultimately harm the economy. "Time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods) –and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."

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